WTI crude holds above $70 as US-Iran mixed messages cloud Doha talks

Conflicting statements from Washington and Tehran on whether nuclear talks will resume this week kept oil traders guessing, with WTI crude holding above $70 a barrel.

WTI crude hovered above $70 a barrel Monday as President Donald Trump said Iran requested talks in Doha on Tuesday, only for Tehran to deny any meetings were scheduled, clouding the outlook for a fragile ceasefire.

"The conflicting signals from both sides highlight how fragile the interim agreement really is," said Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Iran has weaponized geography in the Strait of Hormuz, and they're going to seek remuneration to use those straits."

Brent crude futures rose nearly 1% to trade near $73 a barrel, while WTI crude edged up to around $70.50, paring some of last week's declines that brought prices to pre-war levels. The uptick came after an Iranian projectile struck a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, triggering a fresh exchange of strikes between the two sides over the weekend. Traffic through the vital waterway plunged to just 12 commercial vessels on Sunday, down from 70 crossings on Wednesday — the highest since the war began — according to maritime tracking firm Kpler.

The Strait of Hormuz typically handles about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. Its disruption has already cost American households roughly $1,000 each in higher fuel, food and other expenses since the conflict began in February, according to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. With midterm elections approaching, Trump has pressured fuel retailers to cut gasoline prices toward $2.50 a gallon, making a resolution to the standoff increasingly urgent.

Iran's deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said Monday that no technical working group meetings were scheduled for this week, contradicting Trump's social media post claiming talks would take place in Doha. A senior Iranian source later told Reuters that a meeting would occur Tuesday focused on managing the Strait of Hormuz and deescalating tensions, though Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei insisted the country "has not yet entered the stage of negotiating a final agreement."

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News that envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would fly to Doha this week for high-level meetings alongside technical talks. "As far as we're concerned, we're holding up our end of the ceasefire. Violence will be met with violence," Leavitt said.

The status of the Strait of Hormuz remains the most contentious issue. Iran said Monday it held its first meeting with Oman to discuss future management of the waterway, while insisting it alone would handle demining operations. Gharibabadi called the situation "sensitive and complex" and warned France against complicating it with "provocations" after President Emmanuel Macron announced a joint demining effort with Oman.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the country is set to receive $6 billion of $12 billion in frozen assets held in Qatar, part of the terms in the June 15 memorandum of understanding. The accord also includes waivers on sanctions for Iran's oil and petrochemical sectors, which Pezeshkian called "a great victory for the Iranian people."

The last time the US and Iran sat down for direct talks was June 21 in Switzerland, where both sides agreed to a 60-day negotiation window to hash out a broader deal covering Iran's nuclear program. With the Strait of Hormuz still partially blocked and both sides accusing each other of ceasefire violations, that timeline is looking increasingly ambitious.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.