ViaSat surges 24% as $15B spectrum draws takeover interest

The last standalone owner of global L-band spectrum is now the most sought-after prize in the new space race, with analysts valuing ViaSat's airwaves at $15 billion.

ViaSat Inc. shares surged 24% on Monday and another 13% on Tuesday, pushing the satellite company's market value to $11.88 billion, after Rocket Lab USA Inc.'s deal to buy Iridium Communications Inc. triggered a wave of speculation that ViaSat could be the next takeover target in the consolidating space sector.

"The Iridium valuation is a strong read-through for ViaSat, particularly regarding its global L-band spectrum," said Brent Penter, an analyst at Raymond James. "With the other two global L-band spectrum owners — Globalstar and Iridium — now both having announced deals to be acquired in the last few months, we view ViaSat not only as the only remaining stand-alone way to get global L-band spectrum, but with a far larger portfolio."

ViaSat's 68 megahertz of global L-band spectrum — electromagnetic frequency prized for its ability to carry signals over long distances and penetrate obstacles — could be worth $15 billion, according to Raymond James. That valuation exceeds the company's entire current market capitalization, implying the rest of ViaSat's business, which includes defense and advanced technology solutions, is being valued at a discount by the market.

Who could buy ViaSat?

Elon Musk's SpaceX and Amazon.com Inc. are the two most likely suitors for ViaSat's spectrum assets, analysts said. SpaceX stated in its IPO filing that next-generation satellites could support a network equivalent to terrestrial carriers and that it may pursue additional spectrum acquisitions. Amazon recently agreed to acquire Globalstar for nearly $12 billion, securing about 25 megahertz of satellite spectrum, though its portfolio remains smaller than SpaceX's.

Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan initiated coverage of ViaSat on Monday with an Outperform rating and a $140 price target, implying 82% upside from the $76.69 close before the Iridium deal was announced. Horan argued ViaSat's spectrum alone could be worth around $15 billion, with the rest of its business valued at roughly $10 billion.

One obstacle stands in the way

ViaSat has pledged to pool its spectrum in a joint venture with UAE-based Space42. However, Chief Executive Officer Mark Dankberg has previously said the company would keep its options open and that it would not necessarily need all of its spectrum for the Space42 joint venture. That flexibility leaves the door open for a partial or full sale of the company's most valuable asset.

The broader space sector is experiencing a wave of consolidation. Rocket Lab's acquisition of Iridium, announced last week, follows Amazon's Globalstar deal and underscores the premium buyers are willing to pay for established satellite infrastructure. For ViaSat, the question is no longer whether a deal will come — but who will make the first offer and at what price.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.