US strikes Iran 80 targets, revokes oil waiver after Hormuz attacks

The fragile US-Iran ceasefire collapsed this week as Washington struck over 80 targets in southern Iran and revoked Tehran's oil export license, triggering retaliatory attacks on US bases and threatening a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States struck over 80 military targets in southern Iran on Tuesday and revoked Tehran's temporary oil export license, collapsing a ceasefire signed less than three weeks ago after Iran attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

"The US response was absolutely necessary to forcefully react to what amounted to Iran breaching the ceasefire agreement," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Wednesday.

US Central Command said it hit Iranian air defense systems, coastal surveillance, surface-to-air missiles, antiship cruise missiles and drone launch sites in a four-hour operation. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded by targeting 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, while Iranian state media reported explosions in the port city of Sirik and on Qeshm Island near the strategic waterway.

The escalation risks derailing the June 17 memorandum of understanding between President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that extended an April ceasefire and launched talks to end the US-Israel war on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz handles about 21 percent of global oil trade, and any sustained disruption could push crude prices more than 3 percent higher, triggering risk-off sentiment across global equity markets.

The US Treasury Department on Tuesday revoked a license issued in June that had temporarily suspended sanctions on Iranian oil exports through August 21, less than 20 days after the MoU was signed. Mohammad Ghalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator, called the reinstatement "major MoU violations" by the US.

Iran's foreign ministry declared the MoU effectively terminated, accusing Washington of breaching the agreement that had mandated lifting the US naval blockade in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway, through which roughly a fifth of the world's petroleum transits, had been partially reopened under the ceasefire terms.

Market Signals Point to Escalation Risk

Prediction markets are pricing a 14.5 percent probability of a US invasion of Iran before the end of 2026, while the odds of Iran implementing a full airspace closure by July 31 doubled to 16.5 percent in 24 hours, according to data from major forecasting platforms. The last time US-Iran tensions reached this level was in late June, when reciprocal attacks preceded the ceasefire — but the current escalation involves direct strikes on Iranian territory and the revocation of economic relief.

Li Zixin, assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, said the heightened domestic sentiment in both countries — Iran holding funeral ceremonies for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the US celebrating its 250th anniversary — has compressed policy flexibility. "Iran's retaliatory actions have already begun, and we cannot rule out further strikes on US military bases in the region or additional restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transit," Li said. "These asymmetric responses will intensify security anxieties across the region and fully expose the fragility of the temporary ceasefire."

Safe-haven assets have attracted inflows, with gold prices rising and the US dollar strengthening against emerging-market currencies. Energy sector stocks gained in early trading on expectations that a sustained supply disruption would boost crude prices, while Middle East-exposed equities declined.

What Happens Next

The US has not signaled an intent to abandon negotiations, and neither has Iran, but the sequence of events — tanker attacks, US airstrikes, sanctions revocation, and Iranian retaliation — has created a cycle of escalation that will be difficult to contain. The next flashpoint will be whether Iran follows through on threats to reimpose restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would directly impact global energy supplies and draw in naval forces from multiple nations.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.