US rig count falls to 562 in first decline in eight weeks

US energy firms idled rigs for the first time in two months even as oil-directed drilling hit a one-year high.

US energy firms cut the total rig count by 1 to 562 in the week to June 12, the first decline in eight weeks, even as oil-directed drilling rose to its highest in a year, Baker Hughes data showed Friday.

The 433 rigs targeting oil marked the highest count since June 2025, while gas-directed rigs fell by 3 to 121, the lowest since October 2025, the Houston-based oilfield services firm said in its weekly report.

The combined oil and gas count remains 7 rigs, or 1.3%, higher than a year ago. The Permian Basin, the most active US shale play, lost 1 rig to settle at 256, down 17 from a year earlier. Weekly US crude production averaged 13.799 million barrels per day in the period ended June 5, up from 13.707 million bpd the prior week and 371,000 bpd above year-ago levels, EIA data show.

The modest pullback comes after years of contraction — rig counts fell 7% in 2025, 5% in 2024 and 20% in 2023 — as producers prioritized shareholder returns over output growth. But the trajectory may be shifting. The EIA projects US crude output will rise to 13.7 million bpd in 2026 from a record 13.6 million in 2025, driven by higher WTI prices tied to supply disruptions from the Iran conflict.

The divergence between oil and gas rigs reflects distinct market dynamics. On the crude side, spot WTI prices are expected to rise in 2026 after three consecutive years of declines, supported by Middle East supply disruptions that have tightened global balances. On the gas side, the EIA projects output will jump to 111.0 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 from a record 107.7 bcfd in 2025, as demand rises for power-hungry data centers and LNG exports.

Drilled but Uncompleted Wells Near Depletion

The industry's buffer of drilled but uncompleted wells — which allowed producers to boost output without deploying new rigs — has largely been drawn down after years of underinvestment. That dynamic, combined with an estimated $5 trillion in corporate spending on US hard assets since 2022, is creating structural demand for drilling services that extends beyond the current geopolitical premium in oil prices.

Oil Prices Slide Despite Supply Concerns

Despite the bullish supply backdrop, crude prices fell sharply Friday. Brent crude dropped 3.55% to $87.17 a barrel, while WTI slid 3.87% to $84.32, extending a weekly loss of about $7. The selloff reflects investor fatigue with geopolitical risk premiums and concerns about demand growth, with fund managers retreating from oil markets at a record pace.

For oilfield service companies, the setup is more nuanced than a simple rig count recovery. Baker Hughes, which also supplies LNG liquefaction equipment, stands to benefit from both domestic drilling and the rebuilding of Middle East export capacity. Completion services providers like ProPetro and Liberty Energy are redirecting generator fleets toward AI data center power contracts, creating revenue streams that decouple their earnings from the drilling cycle.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.