Trump's 99% Israel approval claim risks alienating US Jewish voters

President Donald Trump said he has been the best US president for Israel in history, claiming a 99% approval rating there and warning that Jewish voters cannot support Democrats, in a CNBC interview Tuesday that injected fresh political tension into the campaign for the November midterm elections.

"Jewish people cannot vote for Democrats," Trump said, according to a transcript of the interview. "I've been the best president in the history of Israel."

The remarks come as Trump also addressed the Iran nuclear file, saying Tehran "has agreed to just about everything we need" and reiterating a plan to use Iranian funds for food purchases. He added that Iran "has some missiles left, we could wipe those out," signaling continued willingness to escalate military pressure.

The comments risk alienating Jewish American voters, a traditionally Democratic-leaning constituency that nonetheless shifted rightward in recent elections. In 2020, about 70% of Jewish voters supported Joe Biden, according to Pew Research, while Trump's share rose to roughly 30% — the highest for a Republican since Ronald Reagan. A further shift of even 3 to 5 percentage points in key swing states such as Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan could reshape battleground dynamics in November.

The Iran factor and oil markets

Trump's Iran comments carry direct market implications. Brent crude traded near $78 a barrel Tuesday, with the geopolitical risk premium reflecting the possibility of further US-Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz handles about 21% of global oil consumption, and any escalation that disrupts tanker traffic could push Brent above $85, according to traders.

The administration's plan to redirect frozen Iranian assets for food purchases suggests a dual-track approach: maintaining maximum economic pressure while attempting to manage humanitarian fallout. The last time the US imposed similar food-for-assets conditions on Iran, in 2023, Iranian oil exports fell to an average of 1.4 million barrels a day, down from 2.5 million before sanctions were reimposed, according to tanker tracking data.

Midterm election stakes

The 2026 midterms will determine control of all 435 House seats and 34 Senate seats. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House, while Democrats control the Senate by a single seat. Trump's strategy of appealing directly to Jewish voters on Israel policy — while simultaneously attacking Democrats as insufficiently pro-Israel — mirrors his 2020 playbook but carries higher stakes given the narrow margins.

The president's approval rating nationally stands at about 44%, according to FiveThirtyEight's tracker, with the economy and foreign policy ranking as top voter concerns. The June jobs report released Thursday showed the US economy added 57,000 positions, missing the 115,000 consensus estimate, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%.

Trump's relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been strained in recent months over the pace of normalization talks with Saudi Arabia and disagreements on Palestinian Authority governance in Gaza. The 99% approval figure Trump cited could not be independently verified; the most recent Pew Research survey of Israeli public opinion, from 2024, showed 57% of Israelis expressing confidence in Trump to do the right thing regarding world affairs.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.