Key Takeaways:
A new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows President Donald Trump's approval rating holding at 43% in May, with 72% of voters saying the United States is winning the war with Iran and 66% believing the U.S. holds the upper hand in negotiations — a 12-point jump from April.
"The data shows no change in the administration ratings as a result of the ceasefire. The voters appreciate it but are worried Iran is just buying time with negotiations and would back going to military action to achieve the goals," said Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll and chairman and chief executive officer of Stagwell. "Voters were concerned about the economy before the conflict and remain concerned."
The survey of 1,725 registered voters, conducted May 29-31, found 68% believe Iranians are working to buy time in negotiations, while 59% said the president would be justified in launching another round of strikes if Iran fails to negotiate an end to its nuclear program. A separate 62% said they believe Iran was cheating on its nuclear deal and undertaking banned activities, with 69% saying Iran is rebuilding its nuclear capability — up 4 points from the prior month. On the ceasefire itself, 74% of voters said Trump was right to agree to a pause in hostilities, though 51% said they oppose his overall handling of the Iran conflict so far.
The poll underscores a deepening economic anxiety that has persisted through the conflict. Only 31% of voters said the U.S. economy is on the right track, down 3 points from April, while 57% described it as weak — a 5-point increase. Nearly half of voters, 47%, said their financial situation is worsening, up 5 points from the prior month. Inflation and the economy remain voters' top concerns, with both ticking up in salience, and more voters flagged national debt and federal budget deficits as worries since last month.
The economic pessimism is visible at the household level. A total of 88% of voters said they have noticed an increase in gasoline prices, and 85% reported the same for groceries and food. More than half, 58%, said they believe price increases caused by tensions with Iran are long-term and unlikely to recede soon. On energy policy, 73% said the U.S. should prioritize energy independence, but 53% said higher gas prices are not worth the cost even if it affects national security goals.
The last time a comparable share of voters expressed pessimism about their personal finances was during the inflation surge of mid-2022, when the consumer price index peaked above 9%. The current survey suggests that the geopolitical premium from the Iran conflict is compounding existing cost-of-living pressures rather than replacing them as the dominant voter concern.
On fiscal policy, 89% of voters said they want lower taxes, but majorities said neither Democrats (54%) nor Republicans (53%) have a plan to address affordability issues. On crime, 55% said Democrats lack a plan to curb violence in American cities, while the same share said Republicans do have a plan.
The congressional horserace remains tight, with Democrats holding a 51% to 49% lead among registered voters, widening to 4 points among likely midterm voters. For the 2028 presidential race, former Vice President Kamala Harris leads Democratic primary preferences at 44%, down 6 points, while Vice President J.D. Vance leads Republican preferences at 45%, down 3 points.
On foreign policy beyond Iran, 57% of voters said they support a policy of regime change toward Cuba, though they are split 50-50 on U.S. military intervention. On Trump's recent trip to China, 51% of voters said it was successful, while 48% said the U.S. received only minor trade and political concessions.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
