Scottish Mortgage gains 1% as SpaceX IPO lifts, Anthropic offsets risk

Scottish Mortgage Trust shares rose 1% to 1,450p on Friday as the SpaceX IPO boosted the fund's biggest holding, while Anthropic's upcoming listing offered a potential counterweight to any post-IPO retreat.

"SpaceX is not only a record breaker in terms of money raised at a stock market debut, but it has also left other big names for dust," Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said.

The stock touched 1,497p before paring gains, after sliding to 1,395p earlier in the week from a monthly high of 1,565p. SpaceX closed its first trading day at $160.95, a 19% premium to the $135 IPO price, valuing the rocket company at $2.1 trillion. The IPO raised $75 billion, far surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion record in 2019. SMT invested 151 million pounds in SpaceX between 2018 and 2021, a stake now worth about $3.9 billion — a 25-fold return. The holding represents about 18% of SMT's portfolio.

The risk is that SpaceX follows the pattern of 90% of IPOs since January 2025 — a surge followed by a sharp retreat. If that happens, SMT's biggest winner could drag the stock toward 1,300p. Anthropic, at 2.7% of holdings, may provide a buffer: it raised capital at a $900 billion valuation and filed IPO papers, with traders pricing a potential $1.5 trillion listing.

SpaceX's Post-IPO Pattern Raises Caution

Recent IPOs show a consistent pattern of hype followed by valuation hangover. Figma jumped from $33 to $142 before crashing below $20. Circle rose to $300 and then fell to $49. Medline hit $50 and dropped to $36. SpaceX shares opened at $150, 11.1% above the offer price, before closing at $160.95. The stock formed a doji candlestick pattern on SMT's chart, signaling a potential reversal toward 1,300p, according to technical analysis.

Institutional demand for SpaceX was enormous: BlackRock placed an order for at least $5 billion worth of shares, and total investor demand exceeded $350 billion, making the offering more than four times oversubscribed. About 20% of shares went to retail investors, with UK investors receiving 2.7 million shares worth about $364 million.

Anthropic's IPO Could Offset the Drag

Baillie Gifford, which manages SMT, first invested in Anthropic in 2021 and has steadily built the position. The AI company, creator of the Claude model, is the fastest-growing startup to cross a $900 billion valuation. Its IPO filing and expected $1.5 trillion valuation could provide a catalyst for SMT's net asset value if SpaceX cools. The listing is likely to encourage a new wave of AI IPOs, with OpenAI also taking steps toward a stock market debut.

Beyond SpaceX and Anthropic, SMT holds stakes in Stripe, valued at over $150 billion, and ByteDance, TikTok's parent company — both potential IPO candidates. The fund's other major holdings have struggled: Meta Platforms has fallen 30% from its 2025 high, while Amazon is down 14% from its year-to-date peak.

The FTSE 100 closed up 1.6% at 10,471.72 on Friday, with SMT rising 1.7%. Oil majors BP and Shell fell 2% and 1.7% respectively as Brent crude dropped below $88 a barrel on hopes of a US-Iran peace deal. The US 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.48%, while gold rose to $4,219 an ounce.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.