Key Takeaways:
Oppenheimer raised its 2030 Starlink subscriber forecast to 100 million, saying SpaceX will disrupt the $1.6 trillion communications market.
"SpaceX is transforming from a launch company into a platform spanning space, connectivity and AI infrastructure," Oppenheimer analysts wrote in a research report dated June 16.
The firm lifted its global broadband user estimate to 100 million from 70 million and its US satellite broadband forecast to 15 million from 10 million. Starlink ended the first quarter with 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries, generating $11.4 billion in 2025 revenue at a 63 percent EBITDA margin, according to SpaceX's S-1 filing.
The upgrade shows Starlink is capturing the bulk of new fixed broadband additions globally, pressuring legacy carriers such as Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T Inc. that rely on terrestrial fiber and cable infrastructure. Oppenheimer also raised its 2035 space-economy revenue projection to $800 billion from $500 billion, reflecting accelerating orbital infrastructure demand.
Oppenheimer expects Starlink's network capacity to expand significantly as Starship enters commercial service and begins deploying V3 satellites at scale. The analyst firm sees Starlink evolving beyond consumer broadband into enterprise, maritime, aviation and direct-to-cell markets, which could lower churn and support higher pricing power.
The report also flagged the potential for SpaceX to enter the handset market, an opportunity analysts estimate at $500 billion. Such a move would directly challenge Verizon and AT&T in mobile services, adding to the pressure from satellite-based substitution. Deploying and maintaining buried fiber and coaxial cables costs the two telecom giants billions of dollars annually, while Starlink's orbital assets can be refreshed via Starship's reusable rockets, lowering incremental per-user costs.
SpaceX's post-IPO market capitalization has reached $2.52 trillion, making it the sixth-largest company globally. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has said the company could reach $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. The company's S-1 filing identified a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion attributed to AI infrastructure following its merger with xAI.
The forecast upgrade reinforces Starlink's position as the dominant player in satellite broadband and raises the stakes for traditional telecom operators facing structural market share erosion. Investors will watch for Starship's next test flight and V3 satellite deployment timeline as the next capacity milestones.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
