OpenAI weighs 2027 IPO at $1 trillion as AI spending fears mount

OpenAI's reported plan to delay its initial public offering until 2027 at a $1 trillion valuation underscores the widening gap between AI companies' capital needs and investors' willingness to absorb risk at current prices.

"OpenAI has the most to lose from a delay because they are under capital pressure today and need public markets to support their burn," said Harrison Rolfes, senior analyst at PitchBook covering private companies.

The company confidentially submitted draft IPO documents to the SEC last month but is now reconsidering its timeline, according to reports. The decision follows the SpaceX IPO in June, which raised $75 billion at a $2.1 trillion valuation but saw significant share price volatility. SoftBank Group, OpenAI's largest backer with more than $60 billion invested across the company and related projects, saw its shares fall 13% after the delay news — its biggest single-day drop in three months.

A delay to 2027 would push OpenAI's public debut past the March 2027 maturity of SoftBank's $40 billion unsecured bridge loan, which was structured on the assumption that an IPO would help repay it. It would also leave the IPO pipeline without its marquee name, potentially stalling a wave of tech listings that bankers have been anticipating since late 2025.

SoftBank's exposure grows as terms tighten

SoftBank has now renegotiated its $10 billion margin loan against its OpenAI stake three times since April, most recently adding a corporate guarantee after lenders balked at accepting private-company shares as sole collateral, according to Reuters. The new terms require SoftBank to cover repayment if the OpenAI shares are worth less than expected. The lending group is expected to include Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Mizuho Financial Group.

The company initially sought the loan at about 7.88 percent interest in April, cut the amount to $6 billion in May as lenders grew concerned about valuing private shares, and has now returned to the $10 billion target with the guarantee. SoftBank's net debt stands at $122.9 billion, according to its most recent filings, underscoring the scale of its OpenAI exposure relative to its other investments.

Hyperscaler spending collides with market reality

The OpenAI delay comes as the broader technology sector faces its first serious valuation reckoning since the AI boom began. The Magnificent Seven lost $2.3 trillion in market capitalization in June, their worst correction since March 2025, as investors rotated from hyperscalers toward chipmakers. Nvidia has gained 4.5 percent year-to-date while Microsoft has fallen 24 percent.

Hyperscaler capital expenditures are projected to reach $1 trillion in 2026 alone, with Goldman Sachs estimating a cumulative $7.6 trillion through 2031. The Bank for International Settlements warned in its annual report that if AI displaces enough human labor, workers' purchasing power could collapse and stall the very demand that justifies further capacity expansion.

"If OpenAI delays its IPO to 2027, it will cost them the most because they have the most to lose," Rolfes said. "They are under capital pressure today, and they need public markets to give them the capital to support their burn."

Rival Anthropic could seize the first-mover advantage

Anthropic, which reached a $965 billion valuation in the spring — ahead of OpenAI's $852 billion — may now have a clearer path to go public first. "The company that goes first gets to define the playing field: which companies are the comparables, what is the valuation, what are the key metrics and measures of success," said Lise Buyer, partner and founder of Class V Group, an IPO advisory firm.

Going public first would give Anthropic advantages in hiring and M&A by offering employees and acquisition targets access to real liquidity. For enterprise customers, regular financial disclosures could boost confidence in the company's stability. But a delay by both companies could raise broader questions about AI economics and whether the sector's valuations are sustainable.

CEO Sam Altman is reportedly holding out for a $1 trillion valuation at IPO, though concerns over profitability may make that target difficult to achieve. "There's a universe where OpenAI can become a company like a Google or Apple or Microsoft or Amazon, and what they're doing today is not abnormal for a startup; they're making a lot of bets," said David Yakobovitch, GP at DataPower Capital, which is an investor in OpenAI. "Not every bet is going to pay off, and to become IPO ready, what all companies have to do is rein in costs."

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.