Nvidia draws $125 crash target as trading analyst predicts October decline

A trading analyst projected Nvidia Corp. shares will fall to $125 by mid-October 2026, a bearish call targeting the AI chip leader at a fraction of its current value.

The analyst, whose name was not disclosed in the report, cited valuation concerns and fading AI chip demand momentum as the basis for the projection, according to Finbold.

The $125 target comes as Nvidia shares already face headwinds. The stock fell 5.2 percent on June 5 as part of a broader technology rout triggered by a stronger-than-expected May jobs report. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.95 percent that day, with semiconductor peers Broadcom, Advanced Micro Devices and Intel declining between 5.5 percent and 8.7 percent, according to market data. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.54 percent from 4.47 percent after the report showed 172,000 jobs added versus the 80,000 consensus estimate, reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The bearish projection introduces fresh downside risk for Nvidia, which has been one of the most heavily traded names in the AI semiconductor space. If realized, the $125 target would represent one of the most aggressive bearish calls on the stock since the AI boom began.

For Nvidia holders, the call adds to near-term uncertainty as the stock navigates a macro environment where higher-for-longer rates pressure long-duration technology assets. The next major catalyst is Nvidia's Q2 earnings report, expected in late August, where investors will scrutinize data center revenue growth and any signs of slowing AI chip orders.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.