Nasdaq 100 futures climb 1% as tech rally faces AI earnings test

Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1% on Monday, signaling a tech-led bounce as investors await earnings from Samsung Electronics that will test whether the AI-driven rally has room to run after a first half that saw the S&P 500 surge 9.6%.

"Speculative positioning in semiconductors and other hot technology themes is likely to continue being reduced," said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank. "The key question will be whether this triggers a rotation into lagging sectors or a broader correction."

S&P 500 futures added 0.4%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were little changed. The moves follow a holiday-shortened week in which the Dow rose 2% to a record close, extending its winning streak to four consecutive weeks, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.8% on Thursday as chip stocks tumbled. The iShares Semiconductor ETF dropped nearly 6%, with Marvell Technology falling 10% and Intel losing 5%.

The week ahead packs three catalysts that will test the durability of the AI trade. Samsung Electronics, which has rallied 165% year-to-date, reports earnings on Tuesday in what will be the first major read on semiconductor demand since chip stocks pulled back from recent highs. Nvidia shares have slipped 16% from their May peak, while Broadcom is 25% off its early June record. SK Hynix is preparing a $29 billion US listing that would rank among the largest IPOs in history, and SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday under fast-track rules adopted after its record-breaking debut.

SpaceX Joins the Nasdaq-100

SpaceX's inclusion in the benchmark will trigger forced buying of more than $5 billion from ETFs tracking the index, including the Invesco QQQ Trust, though its initial weight of roughly 0.7% limits the impact on a company valued at nearly $2.1 trillion. The stock rallied 2.7% over the five days ending July 2 ahead of the addition, according to data compiled by The Motley Fool.

Cross-Asset Context

The 10-year Treasury yield fell two basis points to 4.46%, while Brent crude slipped 0.5% to $71.77 a barrel. The US dollar index edged lower, and gold eased 0.5% to $4,154 an ounce. The yen weakened past 162 per dollar, testing the resolve of Japanese authorities to intervene, as Goldman Sachs revised its 12-month forecast to 165 from 155.

Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson said US stocks will struggle to reach new highs as momentum fades in semiconductor stocks and investors rotate toward laggards including AI hyperscalers. "The upcoming earnings season may be needed to rebuild confidence in the space," said Francisco Simon, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management.

Hon Hai Precision Industry, Nvidia's server assembly partner, reported a 40% jump in quarterly sales that beat expectations, saying AI demand continues to grow.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.