LME copper climbs $96 to $13,616 as metals diverge

LME copper rose $96 to $13,616 per tonne, while tin slumped $656 and nickel fell $240 in a mixed base metals session.

The mixed moves came as the US dollar index edged down 0.03% to 100.04, with President Trump reiterating calls for the Fed to cut rates rather than raise them, according to Jin10 Data.

LME aluminum added $12 to $3,604 per tonne and zinc gained $7 to $3,537. Lead fell $15 to $1,990, while cobalt held flat at $56,290. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, copper fell 1.5% and tin slumped 5.97%, while nickel rose 0.79%, SMM data showed. In the spot market, Guangdong high-quality copper cathode was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan per tonne, up 10 yuan from the prior session.

The divergence between copper and tin highlights metal-specific supply dynamics. Copper at $13,616 per tonne compares with aluminum at $3,604 and zinc at $3,537, reflecting copper's persistent supply premium among base metals. Tin's sharp decline follows recent volatility in the electronics supply chain.

LME Warehouse Stocks and Supply Dynamics

The broader macro backdrop remains supportive for industrial metals, with the US dollar weakening and expectations that the Fed may hold rates steady through June, according to CME FedWatch data. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through June stands at 97%.

Goldman Sachs economists said they no longer expect the Fed to cut rates this year, pushing the expected timing of the final two cuts to June and December 2027. The bank raised the probability of a small rate hike to 20% from 10%, though it continues to view the likelihood of hikes as low.

On the supply side, the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global trade flows, though the impact on base metals has been indirect compared to crude oil, where WTI rose 3.25% and Brent gained 3.44% as of midday.

In the battery metals space, CME lithium hydroxide has jumped 86% year-to-date, trading back above $20,000 per tonne for the first time since late 2023, according to Reuters. The recovery has been driven by CATL's suspension of operations at its Jianxiawo mine in Jiangxi province, which has an annual nameplate capacity of 150,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.