Iran fires third missile wave at Israel as 100-day war escalates

Iran launched a third wave of missiles at Israel late Saturday, shattering the fragile two-month ceasefire and pushing the 100-day conflict closer to a full resumption of hostilities that could choke off 20% of global oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Iran has repeatedly stated it will not tolerate any violation of the ceasefire or aggression against Lebanon. The aggressor received the response it deserved," Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the Iranian Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on X, warning of a "decisive and painful response" to any further Israeli attacks.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps aerospace force commander confirmed the strikes, which follow an Israeli attack on Beirut's Dahiyeh neighborhood that killed at least two people and wounded 11 others, according to the Lebanese health ministry. The escalation comes as crude oil has already priced in significant geopolitical risk: Brent crude traded near $100 a barrel in April after Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, and the International Energy Agency described the potential supply disruption as the largest in history. Gold has risen 12% since the war began in late February, while the VIX has averaged above 22 for the duration of the conflict.

The missile barrage threatens to unravel the ceasefire brokered in early April after President Trump warned that "a whole civilization will die tonight." Since then, diplomatic efforts have stalled — Iran demands the release of $24 billion in frozen assets, while the US insists on verifiable guarantees that Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons. With 50,000 US troops deployed across the Middle East and Trump having acknowledged he does not rule out ground forces, the risk of a broader regional war remains elevated.

The Ceasefire That Wasn't

The April 7 ceasefire was supposed to end what Trump initially projected as a six-week campaign. Instead, the conflict has entered its fourth month with no diplomatic resolution in sight. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress on June 3 that the US military operation, Epic Fury, was "over" and that the US had achieved its objectives — destroying Iran's defense industrial base, reducing its missile launcher stockpiles and eliminating its conventional navy and air force. Hours later, Iran launched missiles and drones at Kuwait, damaging the international airport, killing one person and injuring more than 60.

The pattern has repeated across the region. Since the ceasefire, Iran has been rapidly digging out buried arsenals of long-range missiles, satellite imagery reviewed by CNN shows, while Israel has continued targeted strikes on Iranian-linked assets in Lebanon and Syria. The Beirut attack that triggered Saturday's retaliation hit Hezbollah offices and depots in southern Beirut, according to Al Hadath television.

Oil Markets Face Renewed Supply Shock

The Strait of Hormuz remains the central economic battleground. Iran has threatened to blow up any oil tanker sailing through the chokepoint, which handles about 20% of the world's crude supply. Hundreds of ships have been stranded on either side of the narrow waterway since March. The US and 31 other nations released a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves in March to cap prices, and Trump de-sanctioned hundreds of millions of barrels of Russian and Iranian crude — a policy reversal from his earlier position.

Despite those measures, US gasoline prices have climbed to their highest point in years, and the war has eroded Trump's approval rating on the economy as the midterm elections approach. The last time Iran launched a sustained missile campaign against Israel — in April 2024 — oil spiked 5% in a single session and the S&P 500 fell 1.5% before stabilizing. The current escalation carries greater risk given the Strait of Hormuz closure and the larger scale of US military involvement.

Diplomacy in Limbo

Negotiations mediated by Pakistan have failed to produce a breakthrough. Vice President JD Vance walked out of talks in Islamabad in April, declaring "bad news for Iran" after all-night negotiations failed. A second round collapsed when Iran's negotiators refused to board their aircraft, demanding a Lebanon ceasefire first. Trump has oscillated between threatening apocalyptic strikes — "a whole civilization will die tonight" — and pulling back at the request of Arab leaders.

Iran's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, elected after his father was killed in the opening US-Israeli strikes on Feb. 28, is viewed as more hardline than his predecessor and closely aligned with the Revolutionary Guard. His military advisor Rezaei's warning Saturday — that "any new action will invite more severe retaliation and heavier costs" — suggests Tehran sees limited incentive to return to negotiations.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.