Iran exports 40M barrels of oil at 20% premium after US blockade lift

Iran resumed open oil sales for the first time in two months after the US removed its naval blockade around June 18, with Tehran now commanding a 20% premium on crude exports, chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said.

"The enemy retreated after lifting the naval blockade, and passage through the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz was opened to the Islamic republic's commercial vessels and oil tankers," Ghalibaf told Iran's state broadcaster. "Over 40 million barrels of oil have been exported since the lifting of the blockade."

The export surge follows a US-Iran interim agreement signed June 18 that ended a six-week blockade, during which Iranian seaborne crude exports collapsed to effectively zero by late May, according to tanker tracking data from Kpler and TankerTrackers. Before the blockade, Iran was shipping roughly 2.1 million barrels per day. In the first week after the lift, more than 30 million barrels departed Iranian ports, with vessels primarily heading toward China, the main buyer of resumed shipments. Oil prices dropped more than 4% following the supply resumption and interim deal announcement.

The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of globally traded oil, and the blockade's removal signals a potential restructuring of crude supply flows in a market already contending with elevated OPEC output. If Iran sustains exports near pre-blockade levels, the additional supply could pressure prices further in the second half of 2026, particularly as Chinese refiners — historically the largest buyers of discounted Iranian crude — absorb the resumed volumes.

The 40-million-barrel figure represents a partial recovery from the blockade's peak disruption. TankerTrackers data showed absolute zero departures from Iranian ports by late May, with crude sitting in onshore storage while US naval assets blocked tanker traffic. The memorandum signed overnight into June 18 determined timeframes for the US to lift its naval blockade and for Iran to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, though occasional US strikes on Iranian positions and Tehran's retaliatory attacks on US bases in Gulf countries have persisted.

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Iran's claim of a 20% premium on exports is notable given the scale of the supply injection. In the two weeks since the blockade lift, cumulative exports reached 50 million barrels, according to separate tracking by Reuters, exceeding Tehran's official count. Among the early movers were tankers including the Hero II and Diona, which together carried more than 3.8 million barrels in initial runs. The premium suggests sufficient demand to absorb the additional barrels, though sustained buying at elevated prices would depend on Chinese refinery margins and broader economic conditions.

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The interim deal triggered modest gains in risk assets, with Bitcoin rising roughly 2% as the blockade news became public, while oil's 4% decline reflected the immediate supply shock. The last comparable disruption to Strait of Hormuz traffic occurred in 2019, when attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities temporarily knocked out 5.7 million barrels per day of production, sending Brent above $70. This time, the supply addition rather than subtraction has inverted the price response. Negotiations in Switzerland over the coming weeks will determine whether the interim agreement holds or whether renewed tensions could reverse the flow. The IMF PortWatch traffic data and US Navy announcements on shipping lane status will be key indicators for markets pricing a 25% probability of normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 31, according to prediction market data.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.