HSBC doubles Intel price target to $200 on foundry turnaround thesis

HSBC raised its Intel Corp. price target to $200 from $100, the highest on Wall Street and double its prior estimate.

"Intel's foundry ramp on 18A nodes and its Data Center & AI recovery create a multiyear earnings trajectory the market is still underpricing," the HSBC analyst said in a note dated July 2.

The new target of $200 stands well above the consensus of $96.07 and surpasses Cantor Fitzgerald's $150, the previous Street high. Intel shares traded at $139.63, giving the HSBC call an implied upside of 43 percent. Of 48 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it a Hold, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, and five rate it Sell or Strong Sell.

The upgrade comes as Intel's turnaround gains traction. Q1 2026 revenue rose 7.2 percent to $13.58 billion, Data Center & AI revenue grew 22 percent to $5.05 billion, and Foundry revenue climbed 16 percent to $5.42 billion. NVIDIA's $5 billion equity investment and a Google ASIC partnership have strengthened credibility. Yet the stock trades at 147 times forward earnings, a multiple that leaves no room for execution missteps. Q2 earnings on July 23 will test whether the guided $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion revenue band can support the valuation.

The HSBC call is a contrarian bet against a Wall Street that remains largely cautious. The consensus target of $96.07 implies 31 percent downside from current levels, and Goldman Sachs initiated coverage at Neutral, citing competition from Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices.

Intel's 278 percent year-to-date rally has been fueled by its foundry ambitions and AI chip prospects. The company was selected as the host CPU provider for Nvidia's DGX Rubin NVL8 systems and secured a multiyear custom ASIC deal with Google. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $150 from $90 on compute strength.

The risk is that fundamentals have not caught up to the stock price. Intel reported a GAAP net loss of $3.73 billion in Q1 2026, driven by a $4.07 billion restructuring charge tied largely to a Mobileye impairment. Foundry operating losses remain structural, running $2.51 billion in Q4 2025. Management flagged a potential pause of Intel 14A if customer demand falls short.

For existing holders, the HSBC upgrade validates the turnaround thesis. For new buyers, the 147x multiple means the stock is pricing in flawless execution. The July 23 earnings report will be the next inflection point: a Q2 beat with narrowing Foundry losses could justify the premium, while any guidance miss or customer delay would leave the stock exposed.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.