Gold holds above $4,100 as weak home sales data boosts haven demand

Gold prices pushed to session highs above $4,100 an ounce Thursday after U.S. existing home sales fell more than expected, reinforcing expectations that a sluggish housing market could give the Federal Reserve room to ease policy later this year.

Spot gold last traded at $4,134.10 an ounce, up 1.5% on the day, according to Kitco data. The move extended a recovery from last month's sharp losses as investors weighed mixed signals from the U.S. economy. COMEX gold futures also gained, tracking the spot market higher.

"Existing home sales dropped 2.4% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million, compared with expectations for an unchanged reading," the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. Sales were up 1.8% year over year from the 4.02 million pace recorded in June 2025. The May reading was revised to 4.19 million.

The disappointing housing data provided fresh support for gold, which has been consolidating around the $4,100 level after sliding from highs above $4,200 in June. The metal remains caught between competing forces: a weakening housing market that bolsters the case for rate cuts, and persistent inflation that keeps the Fed's tightening bias intact. Gold futures on India's MCX rebounded nearly 1% to 144,000 rupees per 10 grams on value buying, according to exchange data.

Next week's consumer price index release will be the next major test for gold, with economists watching for signs that inflation is cooling enough to allow the Fed to pivot. A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen the case for higher-for-longer rates, potentially breaking gold below the $4,100 support. Conversely, softer inflation data could ignite a rally toward the $4,200 resistance level, a psychological barrier the metal has not breached since late June.

Kevin Warsh's debut testimony on Capitol Hill will also be closely watched for signals on the Fed's rate path. Warsh, a former Fed governor, is expected to face questions on monetary policy and the central bank's approach to inflation as the Fed minutes revealed a divided stance among policymakers on the pace of rate hikes.

Geopolitical risks, including tensions between the U.S. and Iran, continue to underpin safe-haven demand for gold, though rising oil prices have pushed bond yields higher, limiting upside momentum. Gold at $4,134 an ounce is roughly 1.6% below the $4,200 psychological level and about 3% above its 50-day moving average, according to Bloomberg data. The metal's 14-day relative strength index sits near 52, in neutral territory, suggesting room for further gains if the CPI print comes in soft.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.