Collins wins Georgia Senate runoff as Trump-backed candidates split 2-1

Rep. Mike Collins won Georgia's Republican Senate runoff with 55.8% of the vote Tuesday, setting up a November showdown with Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff that will help determine control of the 53-47 Senate majority.

"Collins's victory gives Republicans a credible challenger in a state where Trump's coattails have historically underperformed expectations," said Elena Fischer, geopolitical risk analyst at Edgen. "But the simultaneous loss of Trump's gubernatorial pick suggests his endorsement isn't a guaranteed win in Georgia."

Collins defeated Derek Dooley, a former college football coach backed by Gov. Brian Kemp, after receiving a last-minute endorsement from Trump on Sunday. In the governor's race, billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson defeated Lt. Gov. Burt Jones — Trump's preferred candidate — with 52.7% of the vote, according to the Associated Press. Jackson spent more than $100 million of his own money on the campaign.

The Georgia Senate race is one of the most consequential for the 2026 midterms. Ossoff, the lone Democratic senator seeking re-election in a state Trump won in 2024, has amassed more than $32 million for the general election. A Republican pickup would strengthen the GOP's 53-47 majority, potentially reshaping the legislative agenda on tax policy, energy regulation and crypto legislation through 2027.

Trump's Endorsement Record Shows Limits in Georgia

Collins's win marked the second time this month a Trump-backed candidate prevailed in a competitive Georgia primary after the president's late intervention. But the loss by Jones, a longtime Trump ally endorsed by the president last August, underscores the limits of Trump's sway in a state where Republicans have repeatedly bucked his preferences. In 2022, Trump-backed challengers to Kemp and other statewide officials all lost.

Jackson, a political newcomer who runs Jackson Healthcare, a medical staffing company based in the Atlanta suburbs, blanketed the state with ads portraying himself as a homegrown version of Trump. He leaned on a rags-to-riches biography — growing up in poverty with an alcoholic mother and spending time in foster care — to appeal to the party's working-class base. Jones, by contrast, was weighed down by his role in efforts to overturn Trump's 2020 election loss in Georgia, including organizing a fake Electoral College contingent.

Kemp's Influence Tested in Both Races

Kemp, who remains Georgia's most popular Republican, endorsed Dooley in the Senate race and Jones for governor. Both lost. The outcome represents a political setback for the term-limited governor, who declined to run for Senate himself and instead sought to shape the ticket from outside. Kemp's backing of Dooley — a childhood friend from Athens, Ga. — proved insufficient to overcome Collins's Trump endorsement and the congressman's legislative record, including his work on the Laken Riley Act, the first bill Trump signed in his second term.

Collins enters the general election with vulnerabilities. The House Ethics Committee is investigating allegations that his office paid more than $10,000 to an intern who was dating his chief of staff and performed no work. Collins has dismissed the probe as based on a "bogus claim." Ossoff's campaign quickly attacked Collins on Tuesday night, calling him a "notorious bigot, antisemite and extremist currently under federal investigation."

In other races Tuesday, Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma won the Republican Senate primary for the seat vacated when Trump appointed Markwayne Mullin as homeland security secretary. In Alabama, Rep. Barry Moore won the GOP Senate primary runoff against former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson, with significant support from the crypto-backed super PAC Fairshake, which spent more than $12 million on his behalf.

Jackson will face former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in the general election. Bottoms, who won the Democratic primary outright in May, has focused her campaign on affordability and voting rights. The race will test whether Democrats can reclaim the governor's mansion after more than two decades of Republican control.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.