Brent to average $110 in H2 2026 as Hormuz disruption drains inventories

The global oil market faces a prolonged inventory deficit that will keep Brent crude above $100 a barrel through the third quarter of 2027, even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, according to Enverus Intelligence Research.

Brent crude will average about $110 a barrel during the second half of 2026 and peak near $117 in the fourth quarter, Enverus said in a report examining the aftermath of the disruption at the world's most critical oil chokepoint. The forecast assumes a gradual recovery in flows through the strait, through which about a fifth of global petroleum supply transits.

"The key takeaway in our modeling is that the inventory 'stock hole' can outlast the headline," said Al Salazar, director at Enverus Intelligence Research and author of the report. "Even if diplomacy advances, OECD stocks are projected to bottom at levels that historically correlate with stronger prices."

OECD crude and product inventories are projected to fall to about 2.36 billion barrels by the fourth quarter of 2026, down from 2.82 billion barrels at the end of 2025 — a level Enverus described as a 20-year low. The firm estimates a $5 to $10 a barrel geopolitical risk premium could become embedded in oil prices even after normal shipping patterns resume, reflecting heightened concerns about supply security at the Strait of Hormuz.

The supply losses already incurred will continue to influence prices well beyond any immediate diplomatic resolution, Enverus said. The report's base case shows the inventory deficit persisting even as diplomatic efforts advance. On June 12, President Donald Trump said a cease-fire deal with Iran was "within reach," though Tehran denied a final agreement had been reached. Brent crude fell 3.6 percent to $89.73 a barrel on the news, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 3.6 percent to $86.83.

The sensitivity to any further delays is significant. Each additional month of disruption could add roughly $10 to $15 a barrel to average Brent prices during the second half of the year, according to Enverus' modeling. Iranian state media reported warning shots were fired in the Strait of Hormuz near the port of Sirik on June 13, underscoring the fragility of the security situation.

The crisis likely leaves behind a more durable geopolitical premium that doesn't fully get unpriced, Salazar said. The last time OECD inventories approached similar lows — during the 2008 oil price spike — Brent crude averaged $97 a barrel for the year and briefly touched $147 in July before the global financial crisis crushed demand. The current supply shock differs in that it stems from a deliberate blockade rather than a demand-driven cycle, making the recovery path more dependent on political outcomes than market forces.

Rebuilding inventories may take considerably longer than restoring physical flows through the strait, leaving oil markets vulnerable to sustained price strength well into 2027, Enverus said. The firm's analysis suggests that even if a cease-fire is signed and shipping resumes, the structural deficit in global stockpiles will take quarters to normalize.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.