An average of polls by the Cook Political Report found 61% of voters disapprove of Donald Trump's handling of the economy, while 35% approve — a sharp reversal from the 2024 election when 60% of economy-focused voters backed him.
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61% of Trump voters disapprove of his economic handling in 2026
An average of polls by the Cook Political Report this month found 61% of voters disapprove of Donald Trump's handling of the economy, while 35% approve — a sharp reversal from the 2024 election when 60% of voters who ranked the economy as their top issue backed him.
"The Iran war has directed attention away from our affordability crisis, and tariffs are driving up prices," said Jim Dubela, a 66-year-old retired airline captain in New Hampshire who voted for Trump in 2024. Dubela gave the president a "C" for failing to rein in spending and said filling his home heating-oil tank recently cost $900.
The erosion of support comes as the International Monetary Fund downgraded its 2026 global growth forecast to 3%, citing the energy shock from the U.S.-Israeli bombing of Iran, while the U.S. economy is expected to expand 2.3%. The war has pushed gasoline prices almost 50% above pre-war levels as of May, with the Strait of Hormuz — which handles about 21% of global oil trade — largely shut to tanker traffic, according to the International Energy Agency, which expects global oil demand to drop by 1 million barrels a day this year.
The political risk for Trump is that his core supporters are now divided. Some, like Jack Klein, a 67-year-old environmental consultant in Texas, said Trump's performance "exceeds my highest expectations," citing a surging stock portfolio. But others, including Truman Lyons, a 49-year-old Chicago bus driver who voted for Trump in his first presidential ballot since 2008, said he regrets his vote. "Bringing prices down, that should have been a priority," Lyons said. "I don't think he's making the average American citizen the priority."
The Iran War and the Affordability Crisis
The conflict with Iran has become the central economic fault line for the Trump administration. The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee is split over whether inflation will cool once the war winds down, according to minutes released this week under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Half of the 18 policymakers who submitted projections supported lifting rates by year-end, while the other half supported keeping them unchanged or reducing them. The fed funds rate currently stands at 3.6%.
The IEA said most of the decline in global oil demand has been in Asia, which is heavily reliant on oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian nations have altered workdays and made other changes to lower energy use. One notable exception: U.S. gasoline use increased in the second quarter of 2026 despite pump prices nearly 50% above pre-war levels.
Tariffs and the Spending Divide
Trump's tariff campaign has also drawn criticism from his own voters. John Schultz, a 72-year-old marketing consultant in Massachusetts who voted for Trump, said tariffs and the war are "just going to add to the inflation." He also expressed disappointment that the president has not acted to trim the national deficit. Chris Delzio, a 70-year-old financial adviser in Florida, said he is angry that war spending has diverted resources from domestic investment. "The amount of money spent on these wars just really makes you want to cry," Delzio said, adding he now feels unmotivated to vote in the midterm elections.
The last time a U.S. administration faced a comparable erosion of support among its own base over war-related inflation was during the 1973 oil embargo, when gasoline prices surged and approval ratings for President Richard Nixon fell sharply. The current median U.S. home price hit an all-time high of $440,600 in June, according to the National Association of Realtors, adding to affordability pressures even as existing home sales fell 2.4% from May.
The U.S. job market remains stable but is cooling. Employers added only 57,000 jobs in June, less than half the previous month's total, while weekly jobless claims dipped to 215,000. The S&P 500 has risen, closing out a fourth winning week in the last five, but oil prices remain volatile as unclaimed airstrikes hit Iran after the U.S. said it finished its attacks.
For Trump, the path to rebuilding economic confidence runs through the Iran war's resolution and a reversal of tariff-driven price increases. With midterm elections approaching, the 61% disapproval rating among all voters — and the visible fractures within his own coalition — suggest the economy is no longer his strongest issue.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.